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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.