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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."